Several counties in Western Kenya could experience heavy rainfall, flooding, and related disruptions during the October-December 2026 rainy season as a strengthening El Niño influences weather patterns across the country.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast above-average rainfall in Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, and Trans Nzoia, with the wet conditions expected to extend into January in parts of the region.
The forecast comes as the 2026 El Niño continues to strengthen, raising concerns about intense rainfall and prolonged wet spells in several parts of Kenya.
Busia, Kakamega, and Bungoma
Busia is among the Western Kenya counties that could face significant flooding risks because of its location within the Lake Victoria Basin and its network of rivers and low-lying areas.
In Kakamega, prolonged rainfall could cause flooding and waterlogging, particularly in areas with inadequate drainage or located close to rivers. Bungoma could also experience flooding, road damage, and disruption to farming activities if heavy rains persist.
Vihiga, Siaya, and Kisumu are similarly expected to receive above-average rainfall, with the Lake Victoria Basin among the areas forecast to record substantial rainfall during the season.
Trans Nzoia faces farming risks
In Trans Nzoia, excessive rainfall could affect agricultural activities through waterlogging, soil erosion, and crop damage. The county could also experience disruptions along roads linking rural communities to markets if heavy downpours damage roads or cause rivers to overflow.
Flooding and landslides
The regional climate outlook warns that wetter-than-normal conditions could increase the risk of flooding, flash floods, and landslides in vulnerable locations.
Communities living near rivers, wetlands, and low-lying areas are likely to face the greatest danger, particularly when heavy rainfall occurs over several consecutive days.
However, the rains could also benefit farmers by improving soil moisture, replenishing water sources, and supporting crop and livestock production.
Western Kenya not alone
Despite the concerns in Western Kenya, the region is not expected to be the only part of the country affected.
The regional outlook has also identified northeastern Kenya as an area with a high probability of enhanced rainfall, while parts of the Lake Victoria Basin could receive more than 400mm during the season.
Residents across Western Kenya are therefore being urged to monitor weather alerts, avoid flooded roads and rivers, and take early precautions in areas historically affected by flooding.
For county governments, the forecast provides an opportunity to prepare drainage systems, roads, health facilities, and emergency response teams before the heaviest rains arrive.
