Raila Odinga’s influence in Western Kenya has been one of the most enduring political forces outside his Luo Nyanza base, shaping elections, party loyalties, and leadership alignments across the region for more than two decades.
From Kakamega to Bungoma and Busia, the ODM leader’s name carries weight both as a symbol of reform and as a political brand that has defined alliances and rivalries in equal measure.
A loyal voting bloc
Western Kenya has consistently provided Raila with one of his largest support bases, often delivering solid majorities for his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidates during national and county elections.
In 2022, ODM retained significant parliamentary and county seats across Kakamega and Busia, showing how Raila’s message continues to resonate beyond his traditional Nyanza stronghold. This voting pattern made Western Kenya an essential “swing bloc” for Odinga in national contests, giving him leverage during coalition talks and national negotiations.
ODM’s deep roots in the region
Raila’s political influence extended beyond elections. His party, ODM, established firm grassroots structures across Western Kenya through local branches, delegates’ conventions, and youth and women’s leagues.
However, this dominance did not come without friction. Tensions between Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa and former Governor Wycliffe Oparanya revealed the depth of internal competition within ODM, with each side invoking Raila’s name to assert legitimacy and loyalty.
Despite such wrangles, ODM remained the most visible political outfit in Western Kenya, largely due to Odinga’s enduring appeal.
Handshakes and political deals
Raila’s political handshakes and coalition agreements also shaped Western Kenya’s dynamics. His collaborations—most notably the 2018 handshake with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta—redefined local alliances and shifted loyalties in the region.
Recent cooperation efforts with President William Ruto thrust Odinga into the center of Western Kenya’s political debate, with some leaders embracing the rapprochement as a path to development, while others remain cautious about its long-term implications.
Rising competition and shifting loyalties
Odinga’s dominance in Western Kenya increasingly came under challenge from local heavyweights Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, who worked to rally the Luhya vote under their respective parties—UDA and Ford Kenya.
Both leaders, now in key positions within the Kenya Kwanza government, sought to portray themselves as the region’s new political anchors, urging voters to rally behind homegrown leadership. Still, ODM maintained a strong presence, though a growing frustration over unfulfilled promises and internal disputes eroded some of Raila’s long-held support.
